2000-02-01 FOMC moderate approach
Daily Brady Bond Trading Commentary
Tuesday February 1, 2000
If the FOMC continues to follow its typical moderate approach and hikes rates by 25 bps, a short-term relief rally in financial markets is likely to ensue.
No matter what happens, Friday's employment report is just as likely to re-shape opinions as it is to confirm them. We believe that U.S. interest rates reflect a lot of bad news, and that, barring a major surprise on the inflation front, fixed income markets have room to recover. Spread product may continue to lag, however, as supply concerns compound equity-related nervousness.
With the Fed meeting, the usual string of economic data, and Greenspan's Humphrey Hawkins testimony later in the month, February should witness high volatility. We will look for the nervous market to provide attractive buying opportunities across emerging markets.
But continued improvement in fundamentals, as always, remains dependent on strong growth globally and sustained gains in oil and other commodity prices.
Contributed by
Credit Lyonnais Securities (USA) Inc.
This report was prepared by Credit Lyonnais Securities (USA) Inc. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to accuracy or completeness. Returns set forth in this report are estimates based on internal assumptions, and any changes in these assumptions may have material impact on such estimated returns. This is not a solicitation or any offer to buy or sell securities. We, our affiliates, and any officer, director or stockholder or any member of their families, may have a position in and may from time to time purchase or sell any of the above mentioned or related securities.