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Kestrel Capital (East Africa) Ltd.
Market Commentary

January 15, 1999

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Commentary

The 91-day Treasury bill continued to stabilise this week with a marginal increase of 38 basis points to 10.775% from 10.737% the previous week. The effects of the fall in Treasury bill rates have started showing in the mortgage sector with mortgage finance companies lowering their rates. Companies that have lowered their rates include East African Building Society (EABS), Savings and Loan Company (a subsidiary of Kenya Commercial Bank) and Housing Finance Company Kenya (HFCK).

Horticulture earned Kenya a record Ksh 50 billion last year. The Minister for Agriculture, Mr Mudavadi said that Ksh 14 billion was earned from the export market while the remaining Ksh 36 billion was realised in the domestic market.

Kenyan tea prices improved at the weekly auction amid concerns that the current dry weather will see crop volumes falling. Kenya expects a bumper 1998 crop of approximately 290 million Kg. However, the 1999 crop may drop due to the failed short rains season.

Weekly trading at the Coffee Exchange resumed this week with strong prices. A 50kg bag of clean coffee fetched upto US$ 244, compared to US$ 215 recorded during the last auction in December.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has approved a loan of Ksh 1.8 billion to Kenya Commercial Bank to finance small and medium enterprises. The project includes on-lending to export orientated businesses, which will use money to rehabilitate, restructure and expand investments in agricultural, manufacturing and tourist sectors. This investment is also expected to improve the KCB’s management information systems, operating policies and procedures. IFC’s director for Africa division said the project would provide institutional support to KCB in its post privatisation phase.

The failure of the Government to set up an Anti- Corruption Authority has led to a delay of talks of a resumption International Monetary Fund lending to Kenya according to senior Treasury and IMF officials. Mr Osunsade the IMF’s resident representative said that the IMF wanted to see a good management mechanism for a new Anti-Corruption Authority put in place before resuming aid.


Company Announcements


New Issue


Economic Indicators


Debt Market

The 91-day Treasury bill Rate rose marginally by 38 basis points to stand at 10.775%. CBK accepted Ksh 9.0 billion. CBK had invited tenders for Ksh 9.00 billion and received tenders for Ksh 10.76 billion. The 182-day T-Bill Rate however came down to stand at 10.186%.

The One–Year and Two-year Floating Rate Bonds, FR1/1999/1 and FR1/99/2 opened for sale on Wednesday January 6th, 1999 and close on January 20th, 1999. The Bonds are sold in minimum lots of Ksh 50,000. Interest on the one-year bond will be paid quarterly at 0.25% premium above the 12 week moving average on the 91 day Treasury bill rate at the beginning of each interest period. Interest on the two-year bond will be paid semi-annually at 0.5% premium above the 12 week moving average on the 91 day Treasury bill rate at the beginning of each interest period. No fees or commissions are payable by purchasers on the primary issue.

The Bond Market dealt bonds worth Ksh 303.75 million during the week compared to Ksh 151.5 million in the previous week. Issue 2/98/1 dealt Ksh 0.8 million at 100.10% while Issue 3/98/1 dealt Ksh 1.05 million between 100.10% and 100.60%. The two-year Issue 1/98/2 dealt Ksh 160 million between 110.53% and 112.34% while Issue 5/98/2 dealt Ksh 141.9 million between 104.66% and 105.00%. EADB bond was quiet. The yields on these listed bonds are shown below:

Floating Rate Treasury Bonds

Maturity Date

Yield to Maturity

Next Coupon Payment Date

Yield to next Coupon

Issue FRTB 1/1998

25/01/99

NA

25/01/99

NA

Issue FRTB 2/1998

29/03/99

10.510%

29/03/99

12.247%

Issue FRTB 3/1998

28/06/99

11.730%

29/03/99

13.354%

Issue FRTB 4/1998

27/09/99

12.085%

29/03/99

13.210%

FR 1/1998 (2yr bond)

02/08/00

NA

01/02/99

12.455%

FR 2/1998 (2yr bond)

04/09/00

NA

08/03/99

12.926%

FR 3/1998 (2yr bond)

25/09/00

NA

29/03/99

13.915%

* Yields to coupon based on today’s bid prices.

These bonds look increasingly attractive compared to the short term Treasury Bills. The coupons on most of these bonds are based on the 91-day T-Bill twelve-week moving average, which is above the 91 day T-Bill. A premium of 0.25% and 0.50% is paid on the one-year and two-year bonds respectively. The twelve-week moving average on the 91-day T-Bill is currently 14.232%.


Equity Market

The NSE 20 Share Index fell 60.9 points to close the week at 3058.99 points. In shilling terms the market has risen 3.3% since the beginning of the year, while in US Dollar terms it has risen 5.6%. The market capitalisation stands at US$ 2.2 billion. The market had a turnover of 3.0 million shares worth Ksh 111.8 million during the week compared to 3.0 million shares worth Ksh 90.5 million in the previous week.


Price Movements

Major gains during the week were recorded on the following counters:

Counter

Current Price

Week’s Change

Comment

Express Kenya 39.00 30.0 Low volumes
East African Cables Limited 31.00 26.5 Block trade
Jubilee Insurance Company Limited 37.00 23.3 Low volumes
East African Portland Cement Company Limited 19.05 22.5 Low volumes

Major losses were recorded in the following counters:

Counter

Current Price

Week’s Change

Comment

National Bank of Kenya Limited   9.15 23.8 Profit taking
NIC Bank 38.00 15.6 Profit taking
Kenya Commercial Bank 19.80 13.0 Profit taking

Shown below is the level of activity during the week for twelve selected companies.

Counter

Shares traded

Opening Price

Price High

Price Low

Closing Price

Kakuzi Limited

-

141.00

-

-

141.00

Sasini Tea & Coffee Ltd.

7,900

73.50

73.50

73.00

73.00

Kenya Airways Limited

836,877

9.05

40.00

8.50

8.70

Lonrho Motors Kenya Ltd

-

22.00

-

-

22.00

Uchumi Supermarkets Limited

51,305

45.00

45.00

45.00

45.00

CFC Bank Limited

6,400

16.20

18.60

16.20

18.00

Kenya Commercial Bank

123,348

69.00

73.00

63.00

63.00

NIC Bank

24,073

45.00

45.00

36.75

38.00

East African Portland Cement Company Limited

1,600

17.75

19.05

17.75

19.05

Firestone

11,630

22.25

24.00

19.75

19.75

East African Breweries Limited

182,387

60.00

65.00

61.00

65.00

Kenya Power & Lighting Company Ltd

25,975

144.00

150.00

138.00

138.00

ca - cum-all, cd - cum-dividend, xa - ex-all

Blocks of Shares Available

Counter

Number of Shares

Price

Kenya Airways Limited

7,490,000

8.00-10.50

Lonrho Motors Kenya Ltd

120,000

25.00

NIC Bank

500,000

48.00

East African Portland Cement Company Limited

290,000

30.00

Athi River Mining Limited

200,000

10.00

National Bank of Kenya Limited

200,000

13.00

Kenya Power & Lighting Company Ltd

150,000

140.00

Firestone

645,000

25.00

Kenya Commercial Bank

120,000

85.00

CMC Holdings Limited

193,260

40.00

Bamburi Cement

698,880

50.00

* Not open to foreign investment

Open bids for blocks of shares

Counter Number of Shares Price (Ksh)
ICDC Investments Company Limited 200,000 34.00
REA Vipingo Plantations 100,000 5.50
East African Breweries Limited 100,000 54.00

Please forward your comments to: Rick Ashley or Kevin Njiraini Tel: (2542) 251758
E-mail: kestrel@africaonline.co.ke


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