Kestrel
Capital (East Africa) Ltd.
January 15, 1999
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Commentary
The 91-day Treasury bill continued to stabilise this week with a marginal increase of 38 basis points to 10.775% from 10.737% the previous week. The effects of the fall in Treasury bill rates have started showing in the mortgage sector with mortgage finance companies lowering their rates. Companies that have lowered their rates include East African Building Society (EABS), Savings and Loan Company (a subsidiary of Kenya Commercial Bank) and Housing Finance Company Kenya (HFCK).
Horticulture earned Kenya a record Ksh 50 billion last year. The Minister for Agriculture, Mr Mudavadi said that Ksh 14 billion was earned from the export market while the remaining Ksh 36 billion was realised in the domestic market.
Kenyan tea prices improved at the weekly auction amid concerns that the current dry weather will see crop volumes falling. Kenya expects a bumper 1998 crop of approximately 290 million Kg. However, the 1999 crop may drop due to the failed short rains season.
Weekly trading at the Coffee Exchange resumed this week with strong prices. A 50kg bag of clean coffee fetched upto US$ 244, compared to US$ 215 recorded during the last auction in December.
The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has approved a loan of Ksh 1.8 billion to Kenya Commercial Bank to finance small and medium enterprises. The project includes on-lending to export orientated businesses, which will use money to rehabilitate, restructure and expand investments in agricultural, manufacturing and tourist sectors. This investment is also expected to improve the KCBs management information systems, operating policies and procedures. IFCs director for Africa division said the project would provide institutional support to KCB in its post privatisation phase.
The failure of the Government to set up an Anti- Corruption Authority has led to a delay of talks of a resumption International Monetary Fund lending to Kenya according to senior Treasury and IMF officials. Mr Osunsade the IMFs resident representative said that the IMF wanted to see a good management mechanism for a new Anti-Corruption Authority put in place before resuming aid.
The 91-day Treasury bill Rate rose marginally by 38 basis points to stand at 10.775%. CBK accepted Ksh 9.0 billion. CBK had invited tenders for Ksh 9.00 billion and received tenders for Ksh 10.76 billion. The 182-day T-Bill Rate however came down to stand at 10.186%.
The OneYear and Two-year Floating Rate Bonds, FR1/1999/1 and FR1/99/2 opened for sale on Wednesday January 6th, 1999 and close on January 20th, 1999. The Bonds are sold in minimum lots of Ksh 50,000. Interest on the one-year bond will be paid quarterly at 0.25% premium above the 12 week moving average on the 91 day Treasury bill rate at the beginning of each interest period. Interest on the two-year bond will be paid semi-annually at 0.5% premium above the 12 week moving average on the 91 day Treasury bill rate at the beginning of each interest period. No fees or commissions are payable by purchasers on the primary issue.
The Bond Market dealt bonds worth Ksh 303.75 million during the week compared to Ksh 151.5 million in the previous week. Issue 2/98/1 dealt Ksh 0.8 million at 100.10% while Issue 3/98/1 dealt Ksh 1.05 million between 100.10% and 100.60%. The two-year Issue 1/98/2 dealt Ksh 160 million between 110.53% and 112.34% while Issue 5/98/2 dealt Ksh 141.9 million between 104.66% and 105.00%. EADB bond was quiet. The yields on these listed bonds are shown below:
Floating Rate Treasury Bonds |
Maturity Date |
Yield to Maturity |
Next Coupon Payment Date |
Yield to next Coupon |
Issue FRTB 1/1998 |
25/01/99 |
NA |
25/01/99 |
NA |
Issue FRTB 2/1998 |
29/03/99 |
10.510% |
29/03/99 |
12.247% |
Issue FRTB 3/1998 |
28/06/99 |
11.730% |
29/03/99 |
13.354% |
Issue FRTB 4/1998 |
27/09/99 |
12.085% |
29/03/99 |
13.210% |
FR 1/1998 (2yr bond) |
02/08/00 |
NA |
01/02/99 |
12.455% |
FR 2/1998 (2yr bond) |
04/09/00 |
NA |
08/03/99 |
12.926% |
FR 3/1998 (2yr bond) |
25/09/00 |
NA |
29/03/99 |
13.915% |
* Yields to coupon based on todays bid prices.
These bonds look increasingly attractive compared to the short term Treasury Bills. The coupons on most of these bonds are based on the 91-day T-Bill twelve-week moving average, which is above the 91 day T-Bill. A premium of 0.25% and 0.50% is paid on the one-year and two-year bonds respectively. The twelve-week moving average on the 91-day T-Bill is currently 14.232%.
Equity Market
The NSE 20 Share Index fell 60.9 points to close the week at 3058.99 points. In shilling terms the market has risen 3.3% since the beginning of the year, while in US Dollar terms it has risen 5.6%. The market capitalisation stands at US$ 2.2 billion. The market had a turnover of 3.0 million shares worth Ksh 111.8 million during the week compared to 3.0 million shares worth Ksh 90.5 million in the previous week.Price Movements
Major gains during the week were recorded on the following counters:
Counter |
Current Price |
Weeks Change |
Comment |
| Express Kenya | 39.00 | 30.0 | Low volumes |
| East African Cables Limited | 31.00 | 26.5 | Block trade |
| Jubilee Insurance Company Limited | 37.00 | 23.3 | Low volumes |
| East African Portland Cement Company Limited | 19.05 | 22.5 | Low volumes |
Major losses were recorded in the following counters:
Counter |
Current Price |
Weeks Change |
Comment |
| National Bank of Kenya Limited | 9.15 | 23.8 | Profit taking |
| NIC Bank | 38.00 | 15.6 | Profit taking |
| Kenya Commercial Bank | 19.80 | 13.0 | Profit taking |
Shown below is the level of activity during the week for twelve selected companies.
Counter |
Shares traded |
Opening Price |
Price High |
Price Low |
Closing Price |
| Kakuzi Limited | - |
141.00 |
- |
- |
141.00 |
| Sasini Tea & Coffee Ltd. | 7,900 |
73.50 |
73.50 |
73.00 |
73.00 |
| Kenya Airways Limited | 836,877 |
9.05 |
40.00 |
8.50 |
8.70 |
| Lonrho Motors Kenya Ltd | - |
22.00 |
- |
- |
22.00 |
| Uchumi Supermarkets Limited | 51,305 |
45.00 |
45.00 |
45.00 |
45.00 |
| CFC Bank Limited | 6,400 |
16.20 |
18.60 |
16.20 |
18.00 |
123,348 |
69.00 |
73.00 |
63.00 |
63.00 |
|
| NIC Bank | 24,073 |
45.00 |
45.00 |
36.75 |
38.00 |
| East African Portland Cement Company Limited | 1,600 |
17.75 |
19.05 |
17.75 |
19.05 |
11,630 |
22.25 |
24.00 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
|
| East African Breweries Limited | 182,387 |
60.00 |
65.00 |
61.00 |
65.00 |
| Kenya Power & Lighting Company Ltd | 25,975 |
144.00 |
150.00 |
138.00 |
138.00 |
ca - cum-all, cd - cum-dividend, xa - ex-all
Blocks of Shares Available
Counter |
Number of Shares |
Price |
| Kenya Airways Limited | 7,490,000 |
8.00-10.50 |
| Lonrho Motors Kenya Ltd | 120,000 |
25.00 |
| NIC Bank | 500,000 |
48.00 |
| East African Portland Cement Company Limited | 290,000 |
30.00 |
| Athi River Mining Limited | 200,000 |
10.00 |
| National Bank of Kenya Limited | 200,000 |
13.00 |
| Kenya Power & Lighting Company Ltd | 150,000 |
140.00 |
| Firestone | 645,000 |
25.00 |
| Kenya Commercial Bank | 120,000 |
85.00 |
| CMC Holdings Limited | 193,260 |
40.00 |
| Bamburi Cement | 698,880 |
50.00 |
* Not open to foreign investment
Open bids for blocks of shares
| Counter | Number of Shares | Price (Ksh) |
| ICDC Investments Company Limited | 200,000 | 34.00 |
| REA Vipingo Plantations | 100,000 | 5.50 |
| East African Breweries Limited | 100,000 | 54.00 |
Please forward your comments to: Rick Ashley
or Kevin Njiraini Tel: (2542) 251758
E-mail: kestrel@africaonline.co.ke
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