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Kazkommerts Securities

Kazakhstan DEBT RESEARCH

This Section is contributed by Kazkommerts Securities

October 1998

Kazakhstan Debt Research

Latest Kazakhstan Weekly News


Gross External Debt

Structure

Gross external debt is a sum of the external debt guaranteed by the Government and the debt of private companies without government guarantees. The Government’s portion of the external debt is represented by direct credits from international financial institutions and the Governments of other countries, as well as by the two Eurobond issues.

structure of the external debt,
by type of borrowers, %

Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan

Dynamics

Kazakhstan’s total external borrowing of has increased significantly from USD 1.9 billion in early 1994 to USD 5.9 billion as of the beginning 1998. Within the gross external debt, there was a significant increase in the portion of debt which is not guaranteed by the Government, which is, in fact, the borrowing of second tier banks and private companies. These types of legal entities had not virtually existed before 1994 (or were not capable to borrow abroad), which explains the negligible amount borrowed by that type of borrower before 1995. Foreign trade contracts (mostly, import contracts), the payment on which is due, represent the portion of external debt which we call "companies’ contracts", and it has increased dramatically since 1995.

external debt as % of GDP

Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan

external debt dynamics, USD million

Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan vis-à-vis other CIS countries

The table presented below shows the position of Kazakhstan’s external debt compared with other CIS countries. Its ratio of external debt to GDP is modest; higher than in politically isolated, communist-oriented Belarus (9%), and much lower that in heavily burdened Turkmenistan (99%). Although in absolute terms the Kazak external debt is higher than those of other CIS countries, with the exception of Russia and Ukraine, it reflects the country’s ability to attract foreign capital. It also shows that Kazakhstan did not have to focus so much on financing repayment of earlier debts (as Russia or Ukraine). Kazakhstan’s external debt coverage ratio is realistic at 78% of exports, as opposed to 640% in Georgia or 147% for Russia. We also would like to stress that since the beginning of 1998, Kazakhstan has not taken steps towards increasing its external debt with just few exceptions of borrowing by second tier bank. On the other hand, Russia received multibillion dollar rescue packages from the IMF and other international financial organisations, and saw a series of eurobond issues by municipalities and corporations.

gross external debt of the cis countries,

as of 1 January 1998

 

USD bln

% of GDP

% of exports

Azerbaijan

1.5

38

191

Armenia

0.7

44

320

Belorussia

1.0

9

14

Georgia

1.6

32

640

Kyrgyzstan

1.1

63

190

Moldova

1.3

70

165

Turkmenistan

2.5

99

330

Uzbekistan

3.5

28

85

Ukraine

8.9

18

64

Russia

123.5

28

147

Kazakhstan

5.9

27

78

Sources: Intergovernmental CIS Committee


© Kazkommerts Securities 1998. Please cite source when quoting.

This report has been prepared by Kazkommerts Securities and provided solely for information purposes to recipients only. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. Kazkommerts Securities or its affiliated persons may be buying, selling or holding long or short positions, acting as investment bankers, be represented on the Board of the issuers in securities mentioned herein. This report is not intended for the use of private investors. Investment in Kazakhstan markets is an extremely risky activity and many persons, physical and legal, may be completely or partially restricted from dealing in the Kazakhstan securities markets.


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