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Kazkommerts Securities

KAZAKHSTAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Kazakhstan General Economic Guide

This Section is contributed by Kazkommerts Securities

April 1998

Kazakhstan General Economic Guide

Latest Kazakhstan Weekly News


Macroeconomic environment

Growing GDP

After three years of continuing GDP decline, from a low of –12.6% in 1994, moderate growth of 0.5% was observed in 1996. 1997 therefore represented the second consecutive year of positive GDP growth (2%). A cautious government forecast for 1998 predicts GDP growth of about 3%. The long-term government projections for the period to 2030 aim to achieve GDP growth of over 10% in the next 10-15 years.

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Low inflation

The package of anti-inflationary measures introduced in response to post-independence hyperinflation, which in 1994 reached 1,158%, included tough monetary and budget policies. After four years of consistent macroeconomic policies aimed to reduce inflation to moderate levels, the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the Ministry of Finance achieved a record end-of-year low of 11.2% in 1997. Official 1998 projections indicate a one-digit figure (which has a significant psychological effect) of 9.5%.

Source: National Statistics Agency, KS Research

Inflation Rate

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Source: NBK Statistical Bulletin, KS Research

Stable exchange rate

Kazakhstan observed the most dramatic fall of the Tenge against US Dollar in 1994, as a result of excessive cheap credits to the economy. Since that time, the National Bank of Kazakhstan has implemented a tough exchange rate policy, which has resulted in a stable exchange rate of the national currency.

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Source: National Statistics Agency, KS Research

Inflow of foreign investment

Kazakhstan has the highest ratio of foreign direct investment in the CIS. As of end 1997, the net inflow of foreign direct investment into the national economy was in excess of $1,700 billion. The main recipient sectors have been oil, gas and metals.


© Kazkommerts Securities 1998. Please cite source when quoting.

This report has been prepared by Kazkommerts Securities and provided solely for information purposes to recipients only. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. Kazkommerts Securities or its affiliated persons may be buying, selling or holding long or short positions, acting as investment bankers, be represented on the Board of the issuers in securities mentioned herein. This report is not intended for the use of private investors. Investment in Kazakhstan markets is an extremely risky activity and many persons, physical and legal, may be completely or partially restricted from dealing in the Kazakhstan securities markets.


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